Crude oil futures advanced in recent trading sessions, supported by robust demand in the spot market and a firm trend in global benchmarks. Traders and analysts pointed out that renewed buying activity from refineries and industrial consumers, coupled with a tight supply outlook, boosted sentiment. While volatility remains a factor due to global geopolitical tensions and fluctuations in the dollar index, the underlying demand has provided a cushion for prices. Market participants are closely monitoring both international cues and domestic consumption patterns, with expectations of further firmness if demand sustains.
Futures Market Performance
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), crude oil contracts showed an upward trajectory, with prices climbing as investors responded to stronger spot demand. The October delivery contract registered a notable rise, reflecting optimism in physical trade channels. Market watchers highlighted that traders are factoring in continued refinery buying and steady industrial consumption, which helped offset broader volatility.
Spot Market Influence
A sharp pick-up in spot demand was a key driver of the latest price rally. Refiners, anticipating steady consumption, were active buyers in the domestic market. The demand from power generation and transportation sectors added further support, creating a firm floor for prices. With no immediate sign of slackening consumption, the spot market dynamics are likely to continue influencing futures sentiment in the near term.
Global Cues and Domestic Impact
Internationally, crude benchmarks Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) maintained steady gains, underpinned by supply concerns and ongoing geopolitical risks in oil-producing regions. A weaker U.S. dollar also lent support to crude prices, making imports cheaper for countries like India. These global cues, combined with local demand strength, have reinforced a bullish undertone in the Indian futures market.
Analyst Outlook
Analysts expect crude oil futures to trade with an upward bias as long as spot demand remains healthy. However, they caution that external factors such as global supply chain disruptions, OPEC+ production decisions, and fluctuations in the currency markets could trigger volatility. For now, sustained buying in the domestic market is likely to underpin futures contracts, with traders eyeing Rs.7,300–Rs.7,500 per barrel as the immediate price band.
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